https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/19303 2026-04-22T13:23:42Z 2026-04-22T13:23:42Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/48471 2026-03-04T06:26:23Z 2026-02-27T00:00:00Z

Title: A dinâmica da inflação de serviços no Brasil: inércia, tendência e volatilidade Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of services inflation in Brazil over the period from January 2003 to December 2024, comparing it with headline inflation as measured by the IPCA. The study combines univariate and multivariate approaches, employing an Unobserved Components model with Stochastic Volatility and Outliers (UCSVO), ordinary least squares regressions, a static VAR, and a Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) estimated within a Bayesian framework. In addition to services inflation, the analysis incorporates inflation expectations and labor market variables, such as unemployment and the real minimum wage. The results indicate that services inflation follows a dynamic distinct from headline inflation, characterized by a persistently high trend, low permanent volatility, and elevated transitory volatility. The univariate decomposition suggests that significant shocks are concentrated in episodes of domestic dis- ruption, while the multivariate analysis shows that the core transmission mechanisms, related to inertia, expectations, and labor market conditions, remain stable over time, although their intensity varies across macroeconomic regimes. In particular, the sensitivity of services inflation to labor market slack increases in periods of lower economic slack, highlighting the structural nature of inflation persistence in the services sector.

2026-02-27T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/48012 2026-01-14T06:19:38Z 2025-12-11T00:00:00Z

Title: Efeitos do desenvolvimento econômico e da pandemia do COVID-19 na violência contra as mulheres em Minas Gerais Abstract: Informed by the economics of crime and the literature on development and gender-based violence, this study investigates the extent to which economic development is related to violence against women at the municipal level and whether the Covid-19 pandemic changed the recorded rates of these crimes. Panel data models are estimated for different types of violence against women, including femicide, using indicators of education, per capita GDP and variables associated with the pandemic context. The results show negative and statistically significant coefficients for education in most specifications, indicating that higher educational attainment is associated with lower rates of physical violence, psychological violence and overall violence against women. Income has ambiguous effects in static models but tends to display the expected sign in dynamic specifications, suggesting that more favorable socioeconomic contexts are associated with lower levels of violence, although these estimates are sensitive to specification limitations. In the case of femicide, low incidence and spatial concentration generate imprecise estimates, with no robust effects of the development variables. The variables directly linked to the pandemic are not statistically significant, and there is no systematic increase in recorded cases in 2020–2021, despite a marked decline in the most recent years. The findings reinforce the role of education and socioeconomic conditions in protecting women and highlight the limitations of inferring the true incidence of violence from administrative data subject to underreporting and the challenges of modeling rare events.

2025-12-11T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/47969 2026-01-07T06:19:47Z 2025-12-03T00:00:00Z

Title: Valor, preço de produção e contabilidade

2025-12-03T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/47906 2025-12-20T06:26:23Z 2025-12-08T00:00:00Z

Title: O velho consenso macroeconômico, suas aplicações e limites para o caso brasileiro

2025-12-08T00:00:00Z